Overview:What Happened in Telangana Assembly Elections-2023 ?

Telangana Assembly Elections-2023 Analysis by CAP-INDIC Strategy:

CAP-INDIC Strategy has conducted different surveys throughout Telangana state thereby contacting all the social sections through different mediums. Our direct Survey itself approached almost 3 lakh voters, in addition to that we have also approached Journalists, students and govt employees. Before going to the deeper Analysis of the Telangana Assembly Elections we want you to showcase our most accurate Exit Polls.

The Telangana Assembly Election Results-2023:

Party	Seats Won
Congress	64
BRS	39
BJP	8
MIM	7
CPM(I)	1

The Factors which influenced more in the Election:

Why did Congress win ?

⇒ Decision of attacking Corruption and Family rule of KCR but not on Development:

Congress wisely chose the topics to fight BRS. They were successful in creating the discussion about KCR Corruption and Kavitha issue along with family rule saying autocracy,corruption and KTR attitude etc.

Liquor scam gave a strong weapon to Congress , with this they properly pushed both BJP/BRS.

Their idea of sidelining the development is right because people would support it if they go with the development agenda. This is proved in Hyderabad surrounding areas. 

⇒ Social Media:

The ads of the Congress party were successful in diffusing the party message into the masses. Youtube Channels were completely against BRS, so they strategically took their support to counter the govt and spreading allegations.

⇒ Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi Fame. 

Telangana was given by Sonia Gandhi. This message reached all sections of the state. The campaign by Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi was very successful in pulling the crowd. Especially rural people attracted to Priyanka Gandhi like New Indira Gandhi.

⇒ Anti-govt Allegations:

Congress was successful in countering the BRS party, corruption on Kaleshwaram project, TSPSC paper leakages,unemployment, negligence of the health sector (No Arogyasri in private hospitals ) etc.

⇒ Manifesto and 6-Guarantees:

Congress manifesto got widespread on to all sections and especially women voters . When this manifesto went into the people it created a winning wave in the state. 

⇒ Giving tickets to winning Candidates and Operation Akarsh:

They did proper surveys in all the constituencies and gave tickets to the right candidate. Attracting leaders like Ponguleti, Jupalli, Vivek , Rajgopal reddy etc showed larger impact.

⇒ Strong leaders were became Active:

Revanth Reddy , the star campaigner roamed most of the constituencies and created a vibe for the party with his speeches (His Song too).

Bhatti already had Padayatra all over the state by energizing the cadre. He was active in the Khammam district. Speculations around him as CM candidate attracted SCs and BCs sections largely.

Komatireddy has his own impact in 6 to 7 constituencies in Nalgonda. Rejoining his brother in congress gave him&party more strength.

Ponguleti in Khammam completely swept away the BRS Party. He supported in all forms to the Party.

Uttam and his wife gave gunshot seats for Party.

Raja Narasimha in Medak has proper contacts with district cadre and coordinated well. 

Sridhar Babu , Konda Surekha and Vivek all became active in the Party. Created strong focal points for the Congress Party in strategic places. 

Special mention to Seethakka who has popularity in the public and pulled the votes to the Party.

Party utilized the momentum they got from Karnataka elections.

And were successfully replaced by BJP as an alternative in the state.

⇒ Anti-incumbency Votes:  

The Telangana state was formed in 2014 for which major credit was taken by KCR and TRS Party. Though Congress Party sacrificed Andhra Pradesh for Separating Telugu states but Party efforts in the separate state formation were not taken deeply into the people. There may be several factors like no unity between the leaders of the party and groupism.

People of telangana initially accepted the failure and delay of the Congress Party in the formation of the state. But BRS/TRS always used to criticize the Congress Party even after they got a chance to rule the state for 10 years. People started Emphasizing the Telangana Congress leaders like Bhatti, Komatireddy , Sridhar Babu , Raja Narasimha etc for their efforts in the combined state when they were not supreme and powerless.

 

The comments by KTR and KCR against the Congress Party did not create support for them, instead people started to have negative opinions about the BRS party.

The anti-incumbency votes were mostly shifted to Congress as the people decided it as the only best alternative to BRS.

⇒ Attitude of KCR and KTR:

Almost all the voters of telangana were aware that KCR doesn't come to Pragathi Bhavan/secretariat . The attitude of the KCR ruling the state from his own farm house and making all the govt officials come to his farm house for administrative purposes was not liked by the people. 

The opposition parties and Youtube channels successfully conveyed the attitude of KCR as feudal to the state.It has a larger impact on the elections. The Prime Minister,Union Home minister and Rahul Gandhi also criticized KCR as a FarmHouse CM. 

At the same time congress slogan of “PRAJA PALANA” got attention in the people and statements of Congress leaders like removing fencing at Pragathi Bhavan attracted the people.

Oppositions made “Praghathi Bhavan” as a symbol of Feudalism and KCR conveyed with his actions the same by not allowing MLAs and other officials into that.

⇒ KTR attracted the Hyderabad and IT youth but failed to attract the rural youth and masses. His reaction against the TSPSC paper leakages created a big tussle. Unemployed youth were completely against him. Somehow this section of people doesn't like his attitude which in turn created a negative image of him and the same was spread to all sections.

⇒ TSPSC Paper Leakages:

This is the one of the main primary causes that led to the loss of BRS. The educated section believed it was a complete failure of the government. The govt is not ready to take this failure into their credit but at the same time claiming earlier recruitments as their achievements. 

Aspirants were unhappy with the kind of response they got from KTR on this issue. He compared this issue with other state exam leakages and behaved like nothing new/wrong happened.

The highest recruitment exam Group-1 is conducted 2nd time after the paper leakage. This time also they failed to conduct it rationally thereby canceled by the High court. This delay again angered the aspirants.

⇒ Retirement age from 58 to 61:

  This decision effectively benefitted none and impacted many. Most employees also did not welcome this move.

⇒ Allegations of Corruption:

Nature also was not in the favor of BRS. During the peak election time the Medigadda barrage got shrunken. The opposition parties claimed negatively about the quality and design of the project. 

Govt also banned allowing politicians and media. The social media team of congress actively propagated the matter into the people.

The cost of the project and the quality were not proportional , hence voters felt a high level of corruption.

⇒ Dalit Bandu,BC Bandhu and 2 BHK homes:

Everyone knew that BRS gave preference to their party cadre while allocating these schemes. Especially Dalit BANDU corruption reached KCR and he strictly warned and  informed MLAs about this. News that MLAs themselves took bribes from poor beneficiaries was highlighted by the media.

All these schemes created a negative opinion about the party in the normal people.

The 2bhk promise of KCR 10 years ago was trolled on all social media platforms. Opposition also keen on the delay in the distribution of these.

We observed “The beneficiaries of Dalit Bandu, BC Bandu and 2bhk were mostly BRS cadre(Ineligible for these schemes) and were actively campaigning for the party. The common people who were already against the party were moved to congress easily by star-beneficiaries”

⇒ Liquor Scam Issue , Allegations against Kavitha’s corruption and hidden friendship with BJP:

Kavitha's involvement in this scam and the cases of ED were major news for most of the days in the state.

The ministers left all their duties and went to Delhi to support her. This was not appreciated in the state. The behavior of the cabinet is always like surrendering to the Autocratic rule of KCR. 

Individual cases linked to the government were not welcomed by the youth and created a negative image. 

And her arrest also became a drama. BJP state leadership also became silent thereby people were almost in a belief of their secret friendship.

 ⇒ MLA tickets to sitting MLAs:

BRS was successful in winning elections in 2018 by giving tickets to sittings. But this time the situation is different and people who have been seeing them for 10 years will have a natural opposition . Very difficult to think of success by following the same formula as 2018. Most of the MLAs had a negative image in the public and few are even at state level. 

To name a few the MLAs of Constituencies Thungathurthy,Manakondur , Achampet and Chennur were having a negative image among all the sections of the people. Giving tickets to candidates like them would be very risky. KCR failed to understand this.

But the places where they changed the candidates won .

In Jangaon, the party refused a ticket to MLA Muthireddy Yadagiri Reddy and fielded Palla Rajeshwar Reddy who won.

Similarly, Ghanpur MLA T Rajaiah was replaced with MLC Kadiyam Srihari; Narsapur MLA Madan Reddy was denied ticket and it was given to Sunitha Laxma Reddy; Uppal MLA B Subash Reddy was replaced by Bandari Laxma Reddy; Asifabad MLA Atram Sakku was denied ticket and Kova Laxmi was chosen; Alampur MLA Abraham was replaced by Vijayudu; and Boath MLA Bapurao Rathod was replaced by Anil Jadav - and all new candidates won.

And also Korutla MLA Vidyasagar Rao's son Sanjay was given the ticket and Padi Kaushik Reddy got the Huzurabad ticket new - both won.

Few seats the change didn't work like in Wyra (candidate Madanlal), Vemulawada (candidate Ch Laxminarasimha Rao) and Khanapur (Bhukya Johnson).

But if they replace around 35 to 40 seats they should have won the elections. 

⇒ Mistakes in selecting Candidates:

BRS lost Vemula Veeresham by giving a ticket to Lingaiah in Nakrekal. Last time Lingaiah won with the support of Komatireddy brothers. If they keep Veeresham as a candidate the result will be different.

In Thungathurthi also they should have changed the Gadari Kishore and should have given the ticket to Mandula Samuel. 

They did not properly utilize the joining of Kumbam Anil kumar reddy in Bhongir. They should have given a ticket to him in Bhongir and send Pailla Shekar Reddy to Aler. Already in aler Gongidi Sunitha has allegations regarding her husband's activities . And Shekar Reddy local constituency also Aler. It should have worked for them.

The majority of these candidates tell the mistake made by BRS by giving tickets to them. Guvvala Balaraju from Achampet is also a risky choice for BRS. 

Chennur, Peddapalli tickets also should have changed. Rasamayi Balakishan in Manakondur also lost the support from people; he should also be replaced.

⇒ Overconfidence of KCR:

KCR believed people will vote for him by seeing development and welfare schemes. He didn't check the negativity of the candidates .

But Congress Strategically selected their agenda of opposing them as corruption allegations and family rule. They didn't talk about welfare and development. This strategy of congress was not expected by BRS. And the influence of BJP is confined to only few places.

 

⇒ Community Support got changed.

Almost 90% of the Reddys voted for Congress in Non-reddy Candidate areas. Congress Party and Revanth Reddy gave full support to this community.

60 to 70 % Gouds voted for Congress. In Bhongir , Nalgonda , Warangal and Karimnagar Parliament Constituencies areas gouds are fully supported to Congress.This community is against the BRS minister Srinivas Goud and it impacted the voting to BRS.

Mudiraj community votes are shared between Congress and BJP. Yadavs and Kurumas votes shared by Congress and BRS. These communities gave little edge to Congress.

SC votes also gave edge to Congress but based on the constituency. Nalgonda and Khammam districts have full support of Congress. But in Hyderabad, Medak , RR and Mahbubnagar the SC votes were shared almost equally.

ST vote share is also based on the constituencies but in Khammam and Warangal they are inclined to Congress.Tribals believed Seethakka in resolving their issues like Podu and development.

STs in Adilabad continue their support to BJP.

Munnuru Kapu also supported BJP mostly in the elections.

Muslims in Non-Hyderabad areas supported Congress. Earlier Congress was having very little share of this community but this time it showed positive vibes in vote sharing.

Velamas supported BRS and KCR. The domination of this minority community in all the sections especially all important govt divisions are headed by them. This created a negative opinion on the caste and ultimately BRS party to a very large extent. Govt employees did not accept this domination and acted as a catalyst for Congress rise.

Other Factors:

⇒ Losing leaders like Eetela,Ponguleti,veeresham and Samuel etc

⇒ KCR Not Giving appointments to party leaders , public and officials created a negative image and it successfully spread all over the state.

⇒ Pragathi Bhavan and Farmhouse were the common words used initially by the politicians and later by people to criticize the government.

⇒ Govt employees against BRS. No transfers to teachers etc , PRC and DA pending, Political transfers in Excise dept , not issuing new Ration cards in 10 years, Bills pending to contractors(commission based bills approvals).

⇒ KCR believed in intelligence reports not in cadre reports.

⇒ Greater Hyderabad : 

Educated and private employed voters were with the BRS party only. Especially IT Employees and settlers in the capital city were fully in support of KTR and Party. 

Almost all the seats except Ibrahimpatnam and Goshamahal won by BRS & MIM.

In erstwhile Ranga Reddy also Hyderbad surrounded areas won by BRS.Parigi,vikarabad and Tandur were lost. Tandur lost with 6000 majority and here BJP was not contested.

⇒ In Medak Parliament seat , except Medak assembly BRS won the remaining 6 seats.

⇒ 24/39 in HYD ,RR and Medak won by the BRS Party. But in the remaining 80 seats of the state they won only 15.

⇒ In Warangal they won only two seats changing candidates in Jangaon district.

⇒ In Nalgonda won only in suryapet that too with little Majority. The fight is tripartite in Suryapet otherwise it would be lost to Congress/BJP. 10 years only district ministers struggled a lot to win.

⇒ 2/14 in Mahbubnagar won by BRS. Gadwal won because of weaker opposition and Alampur because of seat change. Minister Niranjan Reddy was also lost despite the development he bought for Constituency.

⇒ Srinivas Goud lost though he was very closely moved with KTR and Family. He lost support from his own community here.

⇒ Khammam was also sweeped by Congress except Badracham.

Finally the month of November witnessed dramatic changes in the voters mindset. The social media platforms were able to change the thinking pattern of voters . Hyderabad surrounding areas believed in BRS and its development whereas remaining areas reacted emotionally to different events which happened in the state. Social welfare schemes didn’t show much impact on voters. Some places became negative to the ruling BRS. People didn’t accept the arrogant attitude of Party,leaders and cadres. Slogans like Praja Palana went into the public. Congress guarantees and manifesto created a winning wave in the state. Congress leaders' unity during elections also fetched them good results. 

Being in the ground and interacting regularly with the different sections of the voters gave us the opportunity to know their behavior towards leaders and schemes. For CAP-INDIC Strategy, this election gave a decentralized understanding of the voters w.r.t to different parties . We were able to capture the voters' pulse in both rural and Urban areas. 

Our Exit Polls were the most accurate in guessing the party wise winning seats. Our Predictions were failed in places like Nampally and Patancheru. We still believe the voting percentage was very less than what we expected in Nampally. It impacted the Congress Candidate Feroz Khan thereby losing with just 2000 majority. 

And in Patancheru , we thought anti incumbency votes will be casted to Congress mostly. But Neelam Madhu from BSP also pulled most of the votes from Congress vote bank and SCs. He got 46000+ votes which we didn’t expect.  And the BJP candidate also got 20000 votes. Few sections of the voters shifted to these two candidates thereby Kata Srinivas (Congress) lost with 6000 votes to Mahipal Reddy(BRS).  

Finally this successful political research demonstrates the power of CAP-INDIC Strategy in accurately predicting election results. Our findings offer valuable insights for future research and underscore the potential of data-driven approaches in understanding the electorate. By continuing to refine our own methods and expand our reach, we can contribute to knowing the pulse of people towards the government or certain policies. We also look toward the future, committed to building upon this success and shaping a more informed and empowered electorate.  

                                  

                                                    - Paramesh Matta