Telangana Parliament Elections-2024 Pre-Poll Analysis
Telangana Election Analysis by CAP-INDIC strategy
Before delving into the analysis of the Telangana Parliament Elections-2024, we wish to acknowledge our success in accurately predicting the outcomes.
We express our sincere gratitude to all who have unwaveringly supported us across all segments during the Telangana Assembly Elections 2023. It is through the collaborative efforts of our dedicated team and the invaluable feedback from the electorate that we have been able to present precise results. CAP-INDIC Strategy takes great pride in declaring that our analysis serves as a testament to accuracy, resonating with the genuine sentiments of the voters.
We have extensively canvassed nearly all parliamentary constituencies and gathered feedback from various social groups across different age demographics. While the sample sizes may not match those of the assembly elections, they are substantial enough to capture the prevailing sentiments of the voters. In the following sections, we will provide a comprehensive analysis of each constituency based on the feedback we have received. But before delving into the constituency-wise breakdown, let us first present the overarching themes and discussions surrounding each political party.
BJP:
There is a widespread belief among the people that the NDA will secure victory at the national level.
The significant impact of BJP's social media presence has left a profound impression on the populace.
The charismatic leadership of Prime Minister Modi serves as a cornerstone of BJP's electoral strategy, with a strong belief that it will lead to success.
The fervent advocacy for the construction of the Ram Mandir, coupled with the resounding chant of "Jai Shri Ram" and outreach efforts, has resonated with rural households across the state.
Many perceive that national security and integrity can only be safeguarded under the leadership of Modi.
Modi's tenure has been associated with an elevation of India's stature on the global stage, reflecting an improved international perception of the country.
Urban voters throughout the state are in support of BJP.
Congress:
Free bus and Electricity are the direct arrows from Congress.
A notable segment of the population harbors growing discontent towards the Congress, attributing issues such as water scarcity and power outages to their governance, sparking disillusionment.
There exists skepticism among voters regarding the possibility of Congress or the India Alliance forming the central government, leading some to question the utility of casting their vote for the party.
Internal dynamics within the Congress, including the influx of new members, have disrupted the operational cohesion at the grassroots level.
The notion of Rahul Gandhi as a viable alternative to Modi fails to resonate convincingly with the electorate.
With a presence in the state government, Congress stands to gain support from rural constituencies, leveraging the promise of opportunities in Panchayat and Mandal elections to rally local cadres.
Targeting specific districts like Khammam and Nalgonda, formerly part of the erstwhile districts, holds the potential to secure four MP seats for the party.
The introduction of six guarantees can serve as a strategic move to appeal to women voters, potentially bolstering support for Congress in key demographics.
BRS:
The narrative put forth by BRS party leaders, suggesting that voters only anticipated the potential loss of their MLAs without considering its impact on KCR's tenure as Chief Minister, appears to be a flawed explanation. This is evidenced by the electorate's strong desire for change, particularly evident in non-Hyderabad regions. The defeat of KCR himself in Kamareddy during the elections serves as a glaring example contradicting BRS's claims.
BRS previously had a strong vote bank due to their contributions to IT, Pharma, and infrastructure development.
However, this may not be enough to secure victory in the upcoming Parliament elections due to fierce competition from national parties.
Weak candidates in the party's lineup diminish electoral prospects.
Defection of several MLAs weakens internal cohesion and undermines support.
Inactive cadre further impedes electoral machinery.
Persistent corruption allegations from their decade-long rule continue to haunt BRS.
Recent controversies such as the phone tapping scandal tarnish the party's image.
BJP has to struggle to gain women votes. Their only hope is Jai Sreeram and NaMo.
CAP-INDIC Strategy Survey - Telangana Parliament Constituencies | |||
Constituency | Winner | Remarks | Second Place |
Bhuvanagiri | INC | BJP struggling to fight with Komatireddy brothers & Congress MLAs | BJP |
Nalgonda | INC | Majority matters | BRS |
Khammam | INC | Majority matters | BRS |
Warangal | INC | Kadiyam will win. Aroori lacks trust again from the voters | BJP |
Mahabubabad | INC | Balram Naik = Name + Money + Cadre + Ruling party. Seetharam Naik = Name + Fame | BJP |
Adilabad | BJP | Youth and middle age sections will support BJP | INC |
Peddapalle | INC | Congress will win but the majority is decreasing regularly | BJP |
Karimnagar | BJP | BRS votes = Congress votes ==> Bandi Winning | INC |
Nizamabad | BJP | Urban areas completely inclined to Aravind whereas Rural votes equally shared between BJP and Congress | INC |
Zahirabad | INC | BJP is giving tough fight but Congress is safe now | BJP |
Medak | Edge BJP | INC is out of race..? Need focus of “KCR + Harish” combo here | BRS |
Malkajgiri | BJP | BJP win = weak congress candidate + unpopular BRS candidate | INC |
Secunderabad | BJP | Tripartite fight , but both BRS and Congress won’t get the winning votes | BRS |
Chevella | BJP | Konda is safe and need to focus on majority now | INC |
Mahbubnagar | Edge BJP | Looks like Congress has little lead but BJP is ready to hit at any time! | INC |
Nagarkurnool | INC | Mallu is leading but both BRS and BJP will get decent votes | BRS |
Hyderabad | MIM | MIM will win but BJP will reduce majority | BJP |
1.Nalgonda Parliament
Expected Winner : Congress
The prediction for the winning of the Nalgonda Parliament seat is straightforward based on the following analysis:
Congress Party has emerged victorious in all assembly constituencies except Suryapet in the recent assembly elections. Despite losing in Suryapet due to candidate selection issues, Congress candidate Raghuveer enjoys strong backing from ministers Uttam and Komatireddy.
Local age-old cadre within the Congress party has become active and is working with renewed energy to secure a majority.
Congress is expected to dominate in all assembly segments, with BRS trailing behind. However, in Suryapet, BJP is anticipated to secure the second position.
BJP's candidate SaidiReddy, a former MLA from Huzurnagar, lacks visibility in other constituencies and has limited cadre support in the Nalgonda Parliament seat. Moreover, voter awareness regarding BJP's symbol is low in many areas.
BRS candidate Kacharla Krishna Reddy is poised to compete for the second position. However, being relatively new to voters, his ability to attract votes beyond BRS supporters is questionable.
CAP-INDIC anticipates an easy victory for Raghuveer in the Nalgonda seat, with a significant majority exceeding 2 lakhs.
2.Bhuvanagiri Parliament:
Expected Winner : Congress
In Bhuvanagiri, the Congress party secured victories in six assembly segments, while the BRS claimed the Jangaon seat. The battle for the Bhuvanagiri MP seat intensified until the end of March 2024, primarily between Congress and BJP. However, the landscape shifted significantly with the active involvement of the Komatireddy brothers in the Congress campaign.
Congress has been diligently campaigning across all constituencies, with a particular focus on their MLA candidates. Despite being a newcomer to the electoral arena, Kiran Kumar Reddy's candidacy is bolstered by the strong presence and influence of the Komatireddy brothers. Their active participation, along with meticulous coordination with local MLAs, has reshaped the electoral dynamics in favor of Congress.
The potential victory in the Bhuvanagiri seat carries significant implications, as it could result in a ministerial post for Rajagopal Reddy. This prospect has galvanized his followers, motivating them to throw their weight behind Rajagopal rather than Kiran Kumar.
The active involvement of the Komatireddy brothers, coupled with strategic campaign planning and coordination with local leaders, has positioned Congress as a formidable contender in the Bhuvanagiri parliamentary constituency.
In the Bhuvanagiri constituency, the BJP candidate Boora Narsaiah Goud, a former MP, is contesting once again. He enjoys recognition among the electorate due to his previous tenure. However, this time he is running under a new symbol. While his victory in 2014 was propelled by the Telangana sentiment, his current campaign emphasizes the BJP, Modi, and national-level development agenda.
Belonging to the Goud community, which comprises approximately 18-20% of the electorate in the parliamentary segment, Boora expects considerable support from this demographic. However, our survey suggests that his expectation of securing the entire Goud vote bank may not materialize. This is because the Congress party also boasts long standing local leaders from the Goud community. Additionally, while BRS party Gouds may transfer their votes to him, the same cannot be said for Congress-affiliated Goud voters. Unfortunately, Boora has not actively engaged with leaders from this community during his campaign.
Boora's assumption that BRS votes will seamlessly transfer to BJP is also questionable. His failure to appeal to anti-government and neutral voters who supported Congress in the assembly elections poses a challenge. Moreover, Yadav voters predominantly align with Congress.
To strengthen its position in the Bhuvanagiri constituency, the BJP needs to actively court the Mudiraj and Madiga communities by demonstrating the party's support for their interests and welfare.
Boora Narsaiah Goud's lack of active public engagement during his previous tenure as MP could negatively impact his current campaign. He must prioritize addressing this issue and establishing strong connections with the electorate, particularly in light of the formidable challenge posed by the Komatireddy brothers.
The BRS party is experiencing a decline in prominence in Nakrekal,Munugode and thungathurthi with diminishing cadre support. However, pockets of active cadre are seeking retribution against the Congress party. Some BRS supporters may shift their allegiance to the BJP in their bid to undermine Congress, especially if the BRS candidate is perceived as weak. However, it is unlikely that this shift alone will be sufficient for BJP to secure victory.
Ultimately, Boora Narsaiah Goud's potential loss can be attributed to his failure to capitalize on anti-Reddy sentiments among other communities, neglecting to leverage the BC Card, and employing a centralized campaign style that lacks reach to the general public. These factors have collectively weakened his electoral prospects.
Here's the breakdown of the assembly segments and their expected leads:
Bhongir: Congress is projected to lead, followed closely by BJP and then BRS.
Ibrahimpatnam: BJP is expected to lead, followed by Congress and then BRS.
Alair: Congress is anticipated to lead, followed by BJP and then BRS.
Nakrekal: Congress is predicted to lead, with BRS and BJP sharing second place.
Thungathurthi: Congress is expected to lead, followed by BJP, with BRS trailing behind.
Munugode: Congress is projected to lead, followed by BJP and then BRS.
Jangaon: Congress is anticipated to lead, with BRS and BJP sharing second place.
It's noted that Jangaon, Nakrekal, Munugodu, and Thungathurthi are likely to witness BRS votes transferring to BJP.
Regarding the Bhuvanagiri constituency, Congress is likely to secure victory with a majority of less than 50,000 votes. However, this majority may decrease if national BJP leaders campaign in the area. Conversely, if Congress receives additional support, the majority could exceed 50,000 votes.
3.Khammam Parliament:
Expected Winner : Congress
In the Khammam constituency, Congress emerged victorious in all assembly segments, making it a stronghold for the party. With three ministers from the state cabinet representing this seat, Congress initially had the potential to secure victory with a substantial majority exceeding 3 lakhs. However, the party's decision to delay the announcement of its candidate until the nomination end date has unnecessarily complicated matters.
Congress candidate Raghuram Reddy, who is related to Ponguleti, stands to benefit from Ponguleti's influence in the constituency. The increased popularity of Ponguleti is expected to bolster Raghuram Reddy's chances, even without significant support from other sources.
Nama Nageswara Rao's candidacy for BRS aims to chip away at Congress's vote share, potentially affecting the expected majority. Meanwhile, BJP is anticipated to struggle and possibly lose its deposit in Khammam.
While Congress remains the frontrunner in Khammam, the initially projected majority of over 4 lakhs may not materialize due to the delayed candidate announcement and potential vote splitting efforts by BRS.
4.Warangal Parliament
Expected Winner : Congress
Assembly Segments:
Contesting Candidates:
Kadiyam Kavya (Congress) {BRS to Congress}
Aroori Ramesh (BJP) {BRS to BJP}
Sudheer Kumar(BRS)
Rajaiah Ex-MLA ⇒ {BRS - CONGRESS - BRS}
Pasunuri Dayakar M.P ⇒ {BRS - CONGRESS}
Warangal has indeed emerged as a focal point of Telangana politics due to the shifting allegiances of key leaders among various parties. These movements have rendered survey predictions challenging, especially in constituencies like Warangal, where leaders' affiliations fluctuate frequently. Such transitions create confusion among the cadre, further complicating the electoral landscape.
Despite these complexities, the Congress party holds a favorable position in the upcoming elections, given its status as the ruling party in the state. With senior leader Kadiyam possessing extensive networks within the Parliament seat and Congress's control over all assembly constituencies, securing victory in Warangal seems relatively straightforward for the party.
However, BJP's selection of Aroori Ramesh as its candidate introduces an intriguing dynamic. Despite Ramesh's previous electoral defeat and negative perception in his own constituency, BJP's strong presence in the surrounding areas of Warangal, coupled with the widespread appeal of the Modi brand among youth, promises to present a formidable challenge to Congress.
With BJP's cadre strength evident in several assembly constituencies, the contest in Warangal is expected to be closely fought, with Congress facing a spirited challenge from BJP fueled by the fervor of Modi supporters.
The BRS party faces the crucial task of retaining its cadre and voters for future electoral endeavors. Active campaigning and engagement are essential to maintain the loyalty of its supporters. However, the candidacy of Sudheer Kumar, who may not be widely recognized among the electorate, could potentially benefit BJP by attracting additional votes.
The upcoming elections will provide valuable insights into the reactions of BRS supporters and voters who previously supported Kadiyam and Aroori. Similarly, it will be interesting to observe the response of Congress voters who opposed these candidates in the assembly elections but now have the opportunity to express their preferences in the Parliament elections.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, it is essential for all parties to closely monitor voter sentiments and adapt their strategies accordingly. The outcome of the elections will ultimately hinge on how effectively each party can engage with and mobilize its respective support base.
Here's the breakdown of the assembly segments and their expected leads in the Warangal parliamentary constituency:
Station Ghanpur: Congress is projected to lead, followed by BRS and then BJP.
Palakurthi: Congress is anticipated to lead, followed by BRS and then BJP.
Wardhannapet: Congress is expected to lead, followed by BJP and then BRS.
Bhupalpally: Congress is predicted to lead, with BRS and BJP sharing second place.
Warangal East & West: BJP and Congress are expected to be tied for the lead, with BRS trailing behind.
Parkal: Congress and BJP are projected to be tied for the lead, followed by BRS.
Overall, Congress is expected to secure victory safely in the Warangal parliamentary constituency. However, the outcome may vary if BRS voters decide to support BJP, along with neutral voters. Nevertheless, the prevailing belief is that Congress will emerge victorious in this constituency.
5.Chevella Parliament
Expected Winner : BJP
The Chevella constituency, situated at the intersection of erstwhile Rangareddy and Hyderabad districts, encapsulates a rich diversity representative of the region. In the upcoming elections, the contest is particularly intriguing:
- Konda Vishweswar Reddy, an ex-MP contesting from BJP, brings to the table a clean image, sophistication, and a legacy of political lineage. His candidacy resonates with voters due to his reputation and educational background.
- On the opposing side, sitting MP Ranjit Reddy, now contesting from Congress, faces challenges stemming from his defection from BRS. This move has eroded trust among BRS cadre, diminishing his support base significantly. Many of his previous supporters are unlikely to stand by him in the upcoming elections.
- Kasani, representing BRS and belonging to the Mudiraj community, faces hurdles in capturing new and neutral votes across the assembly segments. Despite this, he is positioned to secure votes from the Mudiraj community, a demographic that typically aligns with BJP.
The dynamics in Chevella are thus complex, with each candidate leveraging different strengths and facing unique challenges. As the election unfolds, the interplay of factors such as candidate appeal, community support, and voter sentiment will determine the ultimate outcome in this diverse constituency.
Here's the summary of the predictions for various constituencies:
Parigi:
- Congress is expected to lead, followed by BJP and then BRS. Ranjit Reddy (INC) enjoys a strong presence and cadre support, ensuring a substantial vote share for Congress in this constituency.
Chevella:
- BJP is projected to lead, with Congress trailing behind and BRS in third place. Konda Visweswar Reddy's connections with the cadre and BJP's visibility from the assembly elections contribute to its advantage in this constituency.
Tandur:
- Congress and BJP are anticipated to be tied for the lead, with BRS following closely behind. BJP has the potential to gain votes here, especially given its border proximity to Karnataka. Active local leaders may bolster Congress's support base.
Vikarabad:
- Congress and BJP are expected to be tied, with a tight fight between the two parties. Youth inclination towards Modi could benefit BJP, while Congress may have a strong presence at the local level.
Serilingampally:
- BJP is predicted to lead comfortably, with Congress trailing behind and BRS in third place. The BJP's strong support among Yadavs and Gouds communities, coupled with BRS's neutrality among Mudiraj, contributes to its expected majority.
Maheswaram:
- BJP is projected to lead decisively, with Congress following behind and BRS in third place. The BJP's grassroots diffusion from the assembly elections is likely to bolster its support in this constituency.
Rajendranagar:
- BJP is expected to lead, with BRS and Congress sharing second place. Active BRS cadre may contribute to vote transfer to BJP, while Congress may face challenges in gaining support.
Overall, Chevella voters appear poised to send Konda Visweswar Reddy to Parliament, with Ranjit Reddy potentially affecting the majority if he concentrates on specific assembly segments. However, the choices of voters in other assembly segments seem largely determined, with BJP leading in several constituencies.
6.Malkajgiri
Expected Winner : BJP
In the Malkajgiri constituency, the dynamics of the upcoming elections are as follows:
- Sunitha is contesting from Congress, while Eetela Rajendar is the BJP candidate. Many intellectuals feel that Congress has fielded a weaker candidate, which may inadvertently benefit BJP. Eetela's campaign, coupled with his association with Modi and issues like Ram Mandir, has propelled him ahead in the race.
- Malkajgiri is the largest constituency in the country, boasting a diverse electorate, with a significant portion being North Indians. Eetela's strong campaign, particularly leveraging Modi's popularity, has resonated well with this demographic, requiring minimal investment of time and resources.
- BRS candidate Laxmareddy is campaigning as a local candidate but faces challenges in regaining their assembly election votes. The likelihood of BRS votes transferring to Congress is high, particularly among neutral voters who previously supported BRS.
The constituency-wise predictions are as follows:
Uppal: Congress and BJP are expected to be tied, with BRS following behind.
Medchal: BJP is projected to lead, followed by Congress and then BRS.
Malkajgiri: BJP is anticipated to lead comfortably, with Congress and BRS trailing behind.
Quthbullapur: BJP is expected to secure a massive majority, with BRS and Congress sharing second place.
Kukatpally: Congress and BJP are expected to be tied, with BRS following behind.
LBNagar: BJP is predicted to lead, followed by Congress and then BRS.
Secunderabad Cantonment: Congress and BJP are expected to be tied, with BRS trailing behind.
Overall, Eetela Rajendar of BJP is poised to win in Malkajgiri, with the possibility of becoming a central minister, given his strong campaign and favorable conditions in the constituency.
7.Secunderabad
Expected Winner : BJP
Contesting Candidates:
BJP: Kishan Reddy(MP-Secbad)
Congress:Danam Nagendar(MLA-Khairathabad)
BRS: PadmaRao Goud(MLA-Secbad)
The Secunderabad Parliament Constituency is gearing up for a three-way battle among BJP, Congress, and BRS, with each party vying for supremacy. While BRS may have secured victories in six out of seven assembly segments, it's important to note that the distribution of votes can vary between assembly and parliamentary elections.
A compelling example of this is Kishan Reddy's performance in the 2018 assembly elections, where he faced defeat in Amberpet. However, he bounced back strongly in the subsequent Parliament elections in 2019, securing a significant majority of over 50,000 votes. This highlights the dynamic nature of electoral preferences and the potential for shifts in voter behavior between different levels of elections.
As such, despite BRS's previous successes at the assembly level, the upcoming parliamentary elections could witness a different distribution of votes. Factors such as candidate appeal, national-level issues, and party strategies can significantly influence voter decisions, leading to outcomes that may not mirror those of the assembly elections.
Therefore, while BRS's dominance at the assembly level is noteworthy, the tripartite contest in the Secunderabad Parliament Constituency remains open, with each party having the opportunity to sway voters and secure victory based on their respective strengths and strategies.
Padmarao Goud and Danam Nagendar, despite being strong leaders in their respective constituencies, may face challenges in expanding their support base beyond their own areas. While they may command loyalty and votes within their constituencies, their influence in other areas could be limited. This situation could potentially divide the opposition votes, creating a challenge for the BJP party.
In contrast, Kishan Reddy of the BJP has the advantage of a broader appeal, thanks to factors like the Modi wave and the Ram Mandir issue. His ability to retain his voter base across various constituencies strengthens BJP's position in the race. However, he must remain vigilant and ensure a focused campaign across all constituencies to maintain his lead.There is also major complaint that he was not available in last 5 years to the public but it will have lesser impact as the voters seeing fight at national level.
Overall, while Padmarao Goud and Danam Nagendar may pose some trouble for BJP by garnering votes in their respective strongholds, Kishan Reddy's broader appeal and the backing of Modi and the Ram Mandir issue give BJP an advantage in the Secunderabad Parliament Constituency.
The BJP's potential victory in the Secunderabad Parliament Constituency can indeed be attributed to various factors:
1. Support from North Indians: The BJP traditionally enjoys significant support from North Indian communities, which form a considerable portion of the electorate in Secunderabad.
2. Modi Bhakts: Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity transcends regional boundaries, and his appeal among supporters (commonly referred to as "Modi Bhakts") could sway the election in BJP's favor.
3. Youth Support :The youth demographic, aged 18-40, often shows enthusiasm for the BJP, drawn to its promises of development, employment opportunities, and strong leadership.
4. Educated Section: BJP's policies and messaging may resonate well with the educated section of society, leading them to favor BJP over other parties.
5. Modi vs. Rahul: In a contest perceived as Modi versus Rahul Gandhi, BJP could benefit from the comparison due to Modi's strong leadership image.
6. NDA Wave: A perceived wave in favor of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), of which BJP is a prominent member, might influence neutral voters to lean towards BJP.
7. Ram Mandir: The BJP's stance on issues like the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya resonates with a segment of the electorate, potentially consolidating their support.
8. Age-old Votebank: BJP may also rely on its traditional support base, which has been cultivated over the years through its ideology, outreach, and party machinery.
These factors collectively contribute to BJP's strong position in the constituency and reaffirms its victory in the upcoming elections. But Padmarao Goud will give a tough fight till the end in some areas.
8.Peddapalli
Expected Winner : Congress
Contesting candidates:
Gaddam Vamshi (Congress)
Masagoni Srinivas(BJP)
Koppula Eshwar(BRS)
In the upcoming elections, the Peddapalli Parliament Constituency appears to be favoring Congress, with several factors contributing to its advantageous position:
Assembly Segment Wins: Congress has secured victories in all seven assembly segments, indicating a strong support base across the constituency.
Vamshi's Edge: While there may be concerns about the wholehearted support of MLA candidates for Vamshi, he still holds an edge in the constituency due to various factors.
Koppula Eeshwar's Challenge: Ex-BRS MLA Koppula Eeshwar could pose a significant challenge to Congress, given his experience and potential popularity. However, the ground-level reality of the BRS party, including its loss of prominence, diminishes the likelihood of a victory for Eeshwar.
BJP's Limited Presence: Although BJP may attract urban voters due to factors like Modi's popularity and the Ram Mandir issue, its overall presence in the constituency is not significant enough to pose a serious threat to Congress's prospects.
Lack of Proper Opposition: Congress currently faces no strong opposition in the constituency, further solidifying its chances of a safe victory.
All the assembly segments will be dominated by Congress followed by BRS except Ramagundam and Mancherial where BJP will be second.
Overall, the absence of a formidable opponent coupled with Congress's established support base across the assembly segments positions the party favorably for success in the upcoming elections. Easy win for Congress.
9.Hyderabad
Expected Winner : MIM
In a constituency with over 60% minority population, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) is the predominant party. Feroz Khan, who previously contested in this area, emphasized the AIMIM's support for Congress. The unexpected selection of Waliullah Sameer, the Hyderabad District Congress Committee (DCC) president, as Congress's candidate introduces new competition. Sameer's candidacy may attract minority votes, challenging the AIMIM's traditional stronghold led by Asaduddin Owaisi. This strategic move by Congress aims to compete for minority support, potentially impacting the dynamics of the election and Owaisi's majority.
The BJP candidate, Madhavi Latha, has begun campaigning actively, particularly leveraging social media and emphasizing religious themes, which resonate strongly in this constituency. She is expected to garner significant Hindu support but may struggle to attract Muslim voters. Reports suggest that the lack of support from the sole BJP MLA of this constituency, Rajasingh, could potentially impact her overall voter turnout.
Again BRS able to pull some votes mostly from Hindus will also impact BJP votes.
In the 2019 elections, the MIM secured a substantial victory with a majority of 282,186 votes in this constituency. However, this margin is expected to decrease significantly to below 200,000 votes in the upcoming elections if both Congress and BJP conduct effective campaigns.
Despite the anticipated reduction in margin, the MIM is still poised for an easy win given its strong base of support in the constituency.
10. Mahbubnagar
Expected Winner : Congress/BJP
The Mahbubnagar constituency presents a unique electoral scenario, especially considering that the Chief Minister hails from this area. In the previous assembly elections, Congress secured victories in all seven assembly seats within Mahbubnagar. However, the current election dynamics are distinct.
One notable aspect of this election is the fluidity of party affiliations among top leaders. It is not uncommon for leaders to support their relatives or candidates from other parties, which can lead to unexpected alliances and endorsements during the campaign. This phenomenon adds complexity to predicting party lines and outcomes in Mahbubnagar.
Given these dynamics, traditional party lines may not necessarily dictate voter behavior in this constituency. Surprises are anticipated during the elections, with instances where leaders from one party encourage voters to support candidates from other parties based on personal or familial connections.
This unique political landscape underscores the importance of closely monitoring developments during the campaign period to gauge the shifting alliances and potential outcomes in Mahbubnagar.
The Congress, as the ruling party, holds a strategic advantage in Mahbubnagar. Leveraging their position, they are rallying local cadre by highlighting opportunities in the upcoming local elections. Vamshichandar Reddy, though familiar to Congress leaders at the state and national levels, may not be widely recognized among the general populace of Mahbubnagar.
However, the active support of Congress MLAs and the Chief Minister, who has campaigned for Vamshichandar Reddy on multiple occasions, provide him with a distinct edge in the election. This backing from influential party figures enhances Vamshichandar Reddy's visibility and credibility within the constituency, potentially translating into voter support during the elections.
Manne Srinivas Reddy from the BRS is projected to secure the third position in this election. The primary contest is expected to unfold between Congress and BJP.
The crucial factor to consider is the vote transfer of BRS party supporters from the assembly elections. There's a likelihood that these votes will shift towards BJP in the parliamentary election. For the BRS party, it is imperative to safeguard its cadre and vote bank for future elections to prevent losing ground in the district.
Ensuring the retention of its support base will be critical for the BRS party's long-term viability and electoral prospects in Mahbubnagar.
DK Aruna, a seasoned politician representing the BJP in this constituency, is mounting a vigorous campaign to challenge the Congress. With a strong network of cadre, relatives, and supporters established over time throughout the constituency, she presents a formidable opponent for the Congress.
Initially, Congress may have held an advantage, but the dynamics have shifted significantly. DK Aruna's relentless efforts and extensive local connections make her a potent contender capable of springing surprises on the Congress party at any moment. She is poised to intensify her campaign efforts leading up to the polling day, making the electoral contest highly competitive and unpredictable.
Furthermore, the BJP's visibility and reach in the constituency have significantly strengthened due to DK Aruna's efforts. With her leadership, the BJP's symbol is well-recognized and has permeated deeply into the grassroots level. This sets the stage for a closely contested battle between the parties, emphasizing the competitiveness of the electoral landscape in this constituency
An interesting observation in this constituency is the trend of educated Madiga voters leaning towards the BJP. However, the BC (Backward Class) communities appear indifferent to the electoral outcome due to all candidates belonging to the Reddy community. This neutrality among the BC communities poses a risk for both the Congress and BJP, as they may not decisively sway these voters.
In Shadnagar, Makthal, and Mahbubnagar, the BJP is expected to have a slight edge, while Kodangal and Devarakadra may favor the Congress. Narayanpet and Jadcherla constituencies are anticipated to be closely contested, with leads fluctuating frequently.
Overall, Mahbubnagar presents a tight race between the Congress and BJP, with the ultimate winner likely to be determined on polling day. The dynamics and outcomes in each constituency are subject to change, underscoring the significance of voter turnout and final campaigning efforts in shaping the election results.
11. Karimnagar
Expected Winner :BJP
Contesting candidates:
Bandi Sanjay (BJP) - MP & Ex BJP State President
B.Vinod kumar(BRS) - Ex MP
Velicherla Rajendar Rao(Congress)
In the Karimnagar constituency, out of the 7 assembly segments, Congress secured victory in 4 and BRS in 3. However, these numbers may not be indicative of the parliamentary election outcome. In previous elections, a similar scenario unfolded where Congress and BRS performed well in the assembly elections, yet the BJP MP emerged victorious with a clear majority.
Initially, the electoral landscape featured a tripartite contest until March. However, as the campaign progressed, the dynamics tightened, leading to the gradual elimination of BRS from the competitive race. This evolving scenario underscores the fluidity of electoral politics and the shifting dynamics that can influence outcomes over the course of an election campaign.
The parliamentary seat of Karimnagar is uniquely influenced by prominent leaders such as KTR, Eetela Rajendar, Bandi Sanjay, and Ponnam Prabhakar, all of whom contested in recent assembly elections and wield considerable influence beyond their assembly segments. Their presence and impact extend to other constituencies, making a comprehensive analysis challenging if viewed from a singular perspective.
The interplay between these influential leaders and their respective party affiliations shapes the political landscape not only in their assembly segment but also across neighboring constituencies. Therefore, understanding the electoral dynamics and outcomes in this parliamentary seat necessitates a nuanced approach that considers the broader implications and ripple effects of these influential figures on the overall electoral scenario in the region.
Based on our analysis, it appears that the Congress candidate, Velicherla Rajendar Rao, has been relatively inactive in recent times, having last contested the MP seat in 2009 under the PRP banner. This prolonged absence has likely resulted in a disconnect with the active local party cadre. Additionally, the late ticket announcement for this seat compared to other parties' ongoing campaigns has further complicated Congress's electoral strategy.
Given these challenges, Congress is heavily reliant on its local MLA candidates to mobilize voters and secure support. As the ruling party, Congress can leverage promises and incentives to motivate local leaders who have the potential to sway up to 1000 votes each. However, despite MLA campaigns, voters may remain hesitant to support a relatively unfamiliar candidate like Velicherla Rajendar Rao.
Moreover, with seasoned senior leaders from BRS and BJP contesting in this seat, the task of pulling votes for Congress becomes even more strategic and challenging. Congress will need a well-planned and targeted approach to secure electoral support amidst stiff competition from established contenders in the region.
BRS MP candidate Vinod Kumar, an experienced former MP actively engaged in the constituency, benefits from ongoing connections with local cadre for increased voter support. However, BRS faces challenges with opposition from youth demographics, including unemployed individuals and government job aspirants, which has cost them seats in the past. Overcoming this requires serious campaigning by KCR and KTR to contend for a strong electoral position, potentially securing second place in the race. Their involvement could sway undecided voters critical to BRS's success.
BJP Candidate Bandi Sanjay, with significant mass appeal and statewide recognition as an MP and state BJP President, has a strong advantage despite perceived shortcomings in local constituency efforts. National BJP activities, such as the Ram Mandir initiative and Modi's image, will bolster his campaign. Riding the NDA's national momentum, Bandi's claim of a potential central minister role attracts educated neutral voters. Previous youth supporters are likely to vote for him again. He has not done much to the constituency being the state president of a national ruling party. He must need to address this.Many voters already forgot this developmental debate only educated youth may question.
Bandi's path to victory hinges on a balanced vote share between BRS and Congress, aside from his base support. With less prominent opponents, he is poised for a comfortable win in this election.
For Congress, the best places to focus are Husnabad, Choppadandi, and Manakondur. These areas present key opportunities to consolidate support and mobilize voters effectively.
For BJP, strategic focus should be on Karimnagar, Huzurabad, and Vemulawada. These constituencies offer strong potential for garnering support and making an impact.
As for BRS, starting the campaign engine in Siricilla and then expanding efforts across all segments is crucial. Building momentum from Siricilla will lay the groundwork for broader outreach and engagement throughout the region.
BJP will win this seat comfortably if the same situation continues.
12. Nagarkurnool
Expected Winner : Congress
Contesting Candidates:
Mallu Ravi - Congress
RS Praveen Kumar - BRS
Bharath Prasad - BJP
In this constituency, Congress has secured victory in 5 assembly seats, while the remaining 2 seats were won by BRS. Notably, Bharath Prasad, whose father Ramulu is the sitting MP, has switched from BRS to BJP and secured a ticket for himself in this election.
Congress's Mallu Ravi, a senior leader and former MP from this constituency, possesses strong contacts and a dedicated cadre.Being the Ex-MP from the same seat Non-local tag may not impact him. As the incumbent ruling party, with active support from local Congress MLAs, he currently holds a commanding position in the race. The party cadre and MLAs are actively engaged in his campaign efforts, organizing meticulously at the block level to bolster his prospects.
RS Praveen Kumar, well-known across the state, has recently joined the BRS party. His entry poses a challenge for the BJP candidate, who was previously with the BRS party. In other parts of Telangana, the BRS vote share has been overtaken by the BJP, but this may not be the case here. RSP maintains strong contacts with the BRS cadre, who are actively supporting him due to his prominent name and reputation.
Bharath is not new to this constituency and is contesting for the first time leveraging his father's image. However, BJP lacks an active presence here, and strong opposition candidates like Mallu RAVI and RSP pose tough competition for him in attracting votes. The historical absence of BJP's significant presence in this constituency means that appeals to Ram Mandir and Modi may not resonate strongly with voters here.
Among all candidates, RSP may attract most of the Madiga voters, with Congress and BJP sharing relatively equal support from this community. The educated sections are likely to favor RSP from the Madiga community.
Congress is still leading in attracting the BC voters showing the opportunities of local elections to the cadre.
Except in Kalwakurthy where BJP is in lead, the remaining all segments are led by Congress and followed by both BRS & BJP closely.
Losing prominence of BRS and new BJP candidate will help the Ruling Party candidate Mallu Ravi in the elections.
13. Mahbubabad
Expected Winner : Congress
The only non-Congress MLA of this Parliament, Tellam Venkat Rao, who won from BRS, has also joined the Congress. Currently, Congress candidate Balram Naik is leading in the race. He enjoys the support of all seven MLAs and previously served as a Central Minister. Naik's strong local contacts are expected to boost his chances of winning the seat, despite some negative perceptions among certain sections. These factors may contribute to his success in securing victory once again in this constituency.
Maloth Kavitha, the sitting MP contesting from BRS, faces challenges in her reelection bid. Despite having party cadre, the BRS's recent inactivity in the constituency following the assembly elections has dampened her prospects. With the national elections at hand, the BRS party's diminished influence is evident, and it's unlikely that her cadre will rally strongly behind her under these circumstances.
Seetharam Naik's decision to join BJP and secure a ticket reflects a significant shift in this constituency's political landscape. Despite his reputation and popularity, many voters here are unfamiliar with the BJP party and its symbol. While some younger voters are influenced by the Modi wave and NDA prospects at the national level, it remains uncertain whether BJP will garner enough support to secure victory in this constituency.
This ST reserved constituency comprises both Banjara and Adivasi voters, with a unique political landscape. Despite the presence of Banjara candidates, the educated Koya voters seem disinterested in the elections. Initially, they sought a Koya candidate from their community leaders but later withdrew this consideration.
In this scenario, the Congress Party has an opportunity to leverage Dansari Surya, the son of Minister Seethakka. Surya has extensive contacts with leaders in Mulugu, Pinapaka, and Badrachalam areas. His influence could potentially attract a significant portion of the Koya community votes to the party's side.
Surya's previous involvement in Pinapaka, where he attempted to contest in the assembly elections, demonstrates his active engagement in regional politics. Moreover, Mulugu is under his family's control, further enhancing his ability to mobilize support among the local populace.
The coordination and support from the Koya community, facilitated by Surya's connections and family ties, present a strategic advantage for the Congress Party in this constituency. Leveraging Surya's influence could prove instrumental in securing a favorable outcome in the upcoming elections.
Considering the dynamics of the all Congress assembly segments and the strategic advantages brought by candidates like Dansari Surya, Congress stands poised to gain significant votes across all segments. This collective support is anticipated to pave the way for an overall easy victory for the Congress Party in the upcoming elections. The coordinated efforts and strategic positioning within the constituency reflect a promising outlook for Congress as they navigate towards electoral success.
14. Zahirabad
Expected Winner : Congress
Out of seven assembly segments of Zahirabad Congress won 4 , BRS won two and BJP surprised us in Kamareddy.
Sitting MP BB Patil's recent move to join BJP and contesting marks a significant shift in the electoral landscape. Patil benefits from initial BRS cadre support and a substantial voter base of Maharashtra origin. In key assembly segments like Kamareddy, Jukkal, and Banswada, BJP boasts a robust cadre, largely composed of young supporters. The strong appeal of Modi's image and the Ram Mandir issue are expected to drive significant voter conversion towards BJP in these segments, enhancing Patil's electoral prospects.
Suresh Shetkar, a former Congress MP and a familiar face to the voters, is leveraging the resources of the ruling government effectively. His campaign strategy involves mobilizing lower cadre workers by demonstrating future prospects, especially with upcoming local elections in mind. Additionally, the support of four local Congress MLAs ensures a strategic vote transfer to bolster Shetkar's electoral chances.
While Shetkar may face challenges in Kamareddy, Jukkal, and Banswada, where BJP holds strong positions, he is poised to secure a substantial majority from Andole, Narayankhed, and Zahirabad. This strategic distribution of support across assembly segments underscores Shetkar's calculated approach towards securing victory in the upcoming elections.
BRS candidate Gali Anil Kumar may not pose a significant challenge, but he remains determined to secure his party's votes. In this constituency, the majority of BRS voters have shifted their support to BJP, while certain neutral sections are inclined towards Congress. The decisive factor for victory in this contest will hinge upon how BRS votes are ultimately transferred, potentially tipping the scales in favor of one of the major contenders.
The competition has intensified between Congress and BJP, with the outcome uncertain until the final moments. Currently, Congress holds a slight edge, raising expectations of a victory with a narrow majority. However, BJP remains a formidable contender with the potential to make significant gains at any moment, underscoring the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the electoral contest.
15. Medak
Expected Winner : BJP/BRS
In this constituency, aside from Medak, the remaining six assembly segments were won by the BRS party historically, indicating a strong base of support that should ideally lead to an easy victory. However, recent shifts in government and the growing influence of BJP have introduced new complexities. As a result, all three major contenders—BRS, Congress, and BJP—are now engaged in a closely contested battle.
Raghunandhan from BJP is widely recognized due to his presence in TV and YouTube debates, actively representing the party. The impact of the Modi wave and the Ram Mandir issue has resonated with certain sections of Hindu voters who were previously hesitant to support BJP. Raghunandhan's extensive campaigning across the Medak MP constituency is fueling optimism within the party, with claims of an impending victory.
Moreover, the relatively reduced focus of prominent BRS leaders like KCR and Harish Rao on this segment indirectly benefits BJP, allowing Raghunandhan to make significant strides in the electoral race.
Neelam Madhu, contesting from Congress and known for his popularity in previous assembly elections, is primarily perceived as a leader of the Mudiraj community, similar to his previous approach. However, beyond his community, he lacks a distinct personal image across all segments. His competitive stance is largely attributed to his association with the ruling government, yet he remains slightly behind in the competition.
In the Patancharu segment specifically, not all Congress party cadre is supporting him due to his perceived role in causing the defeat of Congress in previous assembly elections. This internal resistance further challenges his prospects in the current electoral race.
BRS candidate Venkatrami Reddy is a familiar figure in the constituency, having previously served as the Siddipet collector in this segment. Despite the party's setback in the assembly elections, this MP seat remains a strong prospect for BRS to secure a victory in the state. The influence of KCR and Harish Rao, though not deeply focused here, is expected to resonate effectively. Additionally, Venkatrami Reddy benefits from a robust BRS cadre and support base, which may contribute significantly to his winning chances in the upcoming elections.
Initially, a tough three-way contest was anticipated, but now it has narrowed down to a fierce battle between BJP and BRS. The outcome remains uncertain, and we will have to wait until the counting of votes to determine the eventual winner between these two contenders.
16. Adilabad
Expected Winner : BJP
Adilabad district, being a Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved area, holds significant importance for the Adivasi community whose votes will largely determine the outcome of the election. In recognition of this, all parties have fielded candidates from the Adivasi community.
Atram Suguna, contesting from Congress, is a teacher known for her advocacy for Adivasi rights. She enjoys a strong reputation and clean image among the public, posing a formidable challenge to BJP in this constituency. Minister Seethakka, tasked with managing this seat for BJP, is facing difficulties in securing a victory amidst Suguna's strong competition and public support. The contest in Adilabad underscores the significance of Adivasi representation and issues in the electoral arena.
BJP, as the incumbent party, holds a strong position in the constituency, particularly due to widespread support from the youth who favor Modi and the Ram Mandir initiative. The constituency has experienced minor communal tensions, which have influenced Hindu youth to shift towards BJP. The party boasts a robust cadre at the village level, with strong backing from the mid and young age groups.
Despite the replacement of the sitting MP Soyam Bapu Rao, the new candidate Kotha Nagesh has seamlessly taken over without significant impact. In fact, changing the candidate has potentially garnered additional support from sections that were previously against Soyam.
On the other hand, BRS has faced challenges with many of its cadre shifting allegiance to either BJP or Congress. While they are expected to secure a decent amount of votes, they have not been considered frontrunners since the outset of the campaign.
According to our survey, despite Congress's increasing popularity, BJP remains a strong contender poised to win in Adilabad. The momentum appears to be favoring BJP, indicating a potential victory for the party in this constituency.
17. Nizamabad
Expected Winner : BJP
The sitting MP, Darmapuri Aravind, is contesting from BJP in a constituency where the party holds dominance. With the resolution of the Pasupu Board issue and promises from Modi, Aravind confidently seeks votes from the electorate. This constituency boasts strong support for BJP across all age groups, including women, making a victory for BJP here appear to be an easy task.
Jeevan Reddy, a senior Congress leader and sitting MLC, is contesting from Congress as the party's preferred candidate. Despite a shift in voter sentiment towards Modi in the national elections, Jeevan Reddy's affiliation with the ruling state party ensures a decent vote share and a close contest with BJP in this constituency.
Notably, women voters are expected to support Congress in significant numbers, contributing to the party's electoral prospects. The competition remains fierce, with Congress poised to mount a strong challenge against BJP in this electoral battle.
Bajireddy Goverdhan from BRS, a prominent local leader with a solid cadre at the ground level, faces challenges in the context of national-level elections where local parties like BRS may struggle to secure victory.
BJP is poised for an easy win in Nizamabad according to our assessment.
==> Paramesh Matta
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